Explorations in Public Sector Economics by Joshua Hall

Author:Joshua Hall
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

7.2 Voter Turnout

The literature on voter turnout is extensive. Most studies examine the impact of various demographic or institutional variables on the likelihood of voting (Matsusaka and Palda 1999; Merrifield 1993). This literature has uncovered a number of empirical regularities, but lacks a comprehensive theory of why people vote (Matsusaka 1995). In the literature, there are two main theories about what motivates individuals to vote. Shachar and Nalebuff (1999) summarize these as the (1) “pivotal-voter model” in which people vote in order to affect the outcome of the election, and (2) the “consumption model” in which voters choose to vote because the act of voting itself provides them with satisfaction.

The pivotal-voter model is founded in the rational voter hypothesis developed by Downs (1957) and extended by Tullock (1967) and Riker and Ordeshook (1968). These models explain how the voting calculus of individuals is affected by the costs and benefits of voting. In these models, a key factor influencing voter turnout is the probability that the voters single vote will change the outcome of the election, (i.e., the probability that he or she is the decisive voter). While this probability is very small, even in close elections, and despite some rather heavy-handed criticisms of this rational-choice approach to voting (see, for example, Green et al. 1994), empirical research does tend to support the idea that changes in the probability of being decisive do indeed have the predicted influence on voter turnout (Matsusaka 1993; Shachar and Nalebuff 1999).

According to the pivotal-voter model, the medias early call of the election in Florida for Al Gore before the polls were closed has the potential to lower turnout because it lowers voters’ expectations about their votes being decisive. The effect would be very similar to what might happen in pacific coast states in presidential elections where the popular media has already pronounced an overall winner before the polls have closed. Voters who have yet to vote in these places may logically conclude that their vote can no longer have an impact on the outcome of the election. Despite the apparently clear link with theory, the limited empirical research that has been done on this issue is not very supportive of this hypothesis. Carter JR et al. (1984), for example, finds that the 1980 early projection of victory for Ronald Reagan did not affect voter turnout in those affected Pacific coast states. In addition, in the case of the 2000 election, the first media call of the Florida election for Gore happened at 7:48 p.m. eastern time with only 12 min still remaining to vote. With such a short time remaining until the polls closed its unlikely that many voters were affected by this announcement.

We have mixed priors before looking at the issue empirically. The theory seems pretty clear but given the limited time remaining until the polls closed, and given the previous research we remain skeptical that there will be much of an effect on voter turnout from the media’s call of the Florida election for Gore.

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